Showing posts with label Economic-Thought. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economic-Thought. Show all posts

Supply creates its own Demand and Job Loss in America

Reuters News Mail on July 3rd put the first number one top news “Non-farm payrolls declined 62,000, more or less in line with the forecast of a decline of 60,000. Jobless claims came in at 404,000, a little higher than the 385,000 expected.

If we look back to 1997 when Most Asia Countries were attacked economic crisis, the fundamental reason is property business and mortgages. Property, real estate plays the storm for potential crisis. America is also attacked by this virus, subprime mortgages.

I would like to share my opinion to metropolis why Mortgages and Property Business could blast an economy. We put that land price is constant and have increasing trend in price for our assumption and Property Businessmen get their capital from loans.

Business property takes a biggest portion of Money from lenders (read: Banks). We see that a property from null to become standard house will spend less than $10.000 USD. When Demand from home is declined, businessmen couldn’t payback their loans, and in the long term will impact on credit problems, couldn’t payback will raise the sum of loans. This case goes worst when payday (salary) is being declined both in short and long term.

I put an example: How many employers are needed in Property Business Project?

Reuters News Mail said,” There were 43,00 jobs lost in construction in June as the housing slowdown continued to bite, while manufacturing shed 33,000 jobs. Both of these sectors have lost jobs in every month over the past year.

John B Say in Supply Create its own Demand will explain the phenomena. There are many job were lost. Then we can say the unemployment has no longer job, no job means no money. As the result their Purchasing Power Parity will lower and lower in the long term. Less in Demand will cause to industries sectors. Goods are full in storage, unsold able. Low in sales and low in profit will raise a fundamental decision, Efficiency, and the job cut (fired) is available on Managerial Mind.

We don’t talk about others errors in this case, such as lowering on Dollar, High Flying on Oil Crude and multiply effect to others sectors.

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Chapter Two $130 USD per barrel is Shadow Price

The economist was right. Current oil price is shadow price, made by investors and speculators on trading but the fact the real oil price is around $70-$80 USD per barrel. With external intervention, oil price run bigger than 50 percent and made it new record $134 USD per barrel on last week. I have posted many articles about the naughty investors and speculators behavior such as Who behind Uncontrolled Oil Price, Demonstration against Government Decision Cutting Oil Subsidy, Oil and Food, Oil price and China’s Demand , Oil US Dollar and Investor, Government Deletes The Oil Subsidy , Hello Investors! Why did you do to us? with one summary, They took profit otherwise they make more unemployment people, more poverty, more hunger countries, high inflation in countries, politics destabilization in countries, lowering purchasing power parity, increasing on price in all sectors and more. Transportation sector demand for repairing current tariff, goods and markets also do the same while citizen still in lower PPP (Purchasing Power Parity).

So what the meaning of $130 USD per barrel as Shadow Price? Shadow price doesn’t describe the natural price (read real price) because had been intervened by external cost and factors. But the economist forgot something. He forgot that the shadow price is becoming real price and we buy oil with $130 USD per barrel not $70 USD per barrel. He also forgot that we can’t intervened to market, investors and speculators have much money; bigger than Indonesian budget. It is hard to make some intervention to the market; because if we haven’t no money and the market rules, no government intervention directly.

Continue to Chapter three; Shadow Price becomes Real Price

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Chapter One Oil Price is Shadow Price

Today on TV One, An Indonesian local Television Live Broadcast Debate Program had established funny, critique and economic approach on increasing of oil price. Funny means TV One invited two different key speakers expert, one from politician and second is economist so they don’t understand each others. While economist talked in economic world, the politician didn’t understand well otherwise the economist didn’t understand well.

Critique means independent economist didn’t agree about the current policy to handle increasing in oil price, otherwise, the politician agreed with the government.

Topic debate on the program are talking about the current government policy; cutting oil subsidy with increase the oil price and government policy to handle the impact on poverty people with directly cash aid (Bantuan Langsung Tunai).

I don’t agree with them both. Economist talked look like he made simple classic assumption on economic, no politics and it is about pure economic, so he suggested to government with pure economic policy, on other hand the politician (belonging to government) did politics and others social aspect on his talking.

The economist said that The Current Oil price is Shadow price; not real price. The politician didn’t understand about what shadow price and real price meant. That is the funny. More deep, Economist said that The current oil price is made by investors and speculators on stock market and foreign market exchange. American Congress had been called their Americans largest oil mining to ask the fact about oil production, how much it cost?

Continue to Chapter Two $130 USD per barrel is Shadow Price

Today on TV One, An Indonesian local Television Live Broadcast Debate Program had established funny, critique and economic approach on increasing of oil price. Funny means TV One invited two different key speakers expert, one from politician and second is economist so they don’t understand each others. While economist talked in economic world, the politician didn’t understand well otherwise the economist didn’t understand well.

Critique means independent economist didn’t agree about the current policy to handle increasing in oil price, otherwise, the politician agreed with the government.

Topic debate on the program are talking about the current government policy; cutting oil subsidy with increase the oil price and government policy to handle the impact on poverty people with directly cash aid (Bantuan Langsung Tunai).

I don’t agree with them both. Economist talked look like he made simple classic assumption on economic, no politics and it is about pure economic, so he suggested to government with pure economic policy, on other hand the politician (belonging to government) did politics and others social aspect on his talking.

The economist said that The Current Oil price is Shadow price; not real price. The politician didn’t understand about what shadow price and real price meant. That is the funny. More deep, Economist said that The current oil price is made by investors and speculators on stock market and foreign market exchange. American Congress had been called their Americans largest oil mining to ask the fact about oil production, how much it cost?

Continue to Chapter Two $130 USD per barrel is Shadow Price

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Common Mistakes In Business Plans

Your business plan is typically the first impression potential lenders of investors get about your business idea. Even with a great product, team, and customers, and you are unable to convey to properly convey your image, it could be the last impression if your plan has some of the following, common mistakes.

Lenders and investors review hundreds of business plan every year and with every plan, lenders and investors become more cynical because the same mistakes pop up with regular frequency. With so much competition for a limited amount of capital, it is imperative to not make these mistakes.

1. Financials

Unrealistic Financial Projections - Simply saying that you are going to do $100,000 in sales is not enough nor can you simply say there is no way of knowing. Everyone knows there is no way to accurately come up with financial projections over the next three years, especially in a start-up. But, what is required in your plan is that reasonable assumptions are made and supported with research. By incorporating a detailed list of assumptions and how you arrived at your numbers, the lender/investor can judge your analysis and decision making process. If you are projecting to generate high sales outside of industry norms, explaining how you arrived at this conclusion is a must. Lenders and investors have seen many, many plans that claim sales are going through the roof once funded and as a result are very jaded at statements like this. Financial data that is inconsistent with industry averages and overly aggressive sales figures will raise flags. Explain every number.

Confusing Cash with Profits - Revenues do not always equal cash. For example, suppose you make a sale this month for $100 that cost $50 to produce. Assuming your buyer doesn’t pay for 30-60 and even 90 days if dealing with state or federal sources (and assuming they all pay), the effect on your cash flow is significant. Suppliers and employees still have to be paid for their work while you are waiting on payment from the buyer.

While you may not have a significant portion of sales coming from receivables, the timing of cash flows is critical for developing a financial strategy as cash flow is much more important than profits. Profits are an accounting concept while cash is money in the bank. If you don’t believe me try paying your bills with profits.

No Adjustment for Seasonality - All businesses are seasonal to some extent, some more significant than others. Seasonality refers to the percentage of sales that are made in a month. For example, most retailers have huge November and December sales and lousy January and February sales. Did you make enough cash during the good months to cover the slow months to cover salaries, rents and lights?

If You Build It They Will Come - Be careful in assuming once your doors open people will be streaming in to buy. You have a new, relatively unheard of business. This is a time when your business is particularly vulnerable as most of new owner’s cash reserves have typically been used to open the store. If sales projections are off during the first couple of months and you don’t have enough working capital to keep the lights on, you may be quickly going out of business.

Insufficient financial projections - Basic financial projections consist of four elements: Income Statements, Profit & Loss, Balance Sheets, and Cash Flow Statements.

For most businesses a three-year projection is sufficient, but if yours is a capital intensive one and will take longer to show profitability then use five. Actual figures are a must if you can get them and any number in the projections needs to be in the business plan narrative. If you are purchasing an existing business use the historical financials to show support for your sales figures.

No Quotes - Any significant expenses should have a quote accompanied in the appendix, especially for construction or remodeling as this is an area where most entrepreneurs slip as they do it themselves and greatly underestimate the costs.

2. Marketing

Failing to relieve the customer’s pain - Businesses are rewarded to make consumer’s pain go away. Pain can include; my car stopped working, my doggie is sick or my tax returns are too hard to prepare.

If your business plan can’t show how you are relieving the customer’s pain, then the chances for success in the marketplace is extremely limited.

Remember pain equals market opportunity. The greater the pain, the greater number of customer’s with this pain and the better you can relieve the pain equals greater market potential.

One Billion Customers Served - Claiming everyone needs your product/service will send a strong message to the reviewer that you don’t know your market and remove any credibility to your plan. In the good old days the shotgun approach to marketing could work as there were limited channels for advertisement. Today with unlimited outlets and more narrowly defined markets, this approach does not fly.

While it’s true everyone eats, not everyone will eat at your restaurant, nor could you effectively advertise to everyone. By researching the segments that are most likely to use your product/service and showing how your message will get to them will ultimately make your endeavor more successful. Having clearly defined target markets will show you have done your homework and be the cornerstone of a marketing strategy that can succeed.

We have no competition - Use this statement if your want your plan rejected. Every business has competition. While there may not be a direct competitor, meaning one that offers the same or similar product, there is always an indirect competitor.

Saying there is no competition tells the reviewer that you have either not done any market research or there is not a market for your product.

3. Organization

Writing For The Wrong Audience - A plan for a lender should be written differently than one for an investor. Banks are interested in seeing the likelihood that debts be repaid and investors are interested in the upside profit potential. Be sure to write your plan to your audience. For both, keep to the facts, keep it clear and keep it simple. If you don’t feel you have the writing abilities to make your plan shine, then get help.

Poor spelling and grammar - Leaving spelling and grammatical errors in your plan only tells the reviewer that you are not paying attention to details and may not pay enough attention to the business. Use spelling and grammar checkers and let others review your plan to make sure there are no errors.

Too repetitive - Many times, plans will cover the same points over and over. A well-written plan should cover key points only twice: once in the executive summary then again in greater detail in the narrative of the plan.

Remove the Jargon - Using simple language is imperative to getting a technical business funded. Don’t think that by using complex terms that lenders/investors will be so impressed with your knowledge that they will whip open the checkbook. Businesses that can’t be understood don’t get funded. If you can’t explain your business to a sixth grader your chances of funding are in jeopardy.

Investors are really only interested in your technology if it solves a problem that people will pay for, is better than the competition, can be protected through patents and can reasonably go to market without spending a lot of money.

Keep the technical details out of the business plan and in the white papers.

Appearance matters - Make sure your plan looks professional. Use professional printing, binding, keeping fonts consistent and easy to read. The more money being requested means investing more time in making sure your plan will stand out from the crowd. Be careful that you don’t go overboard and give the impression that the plan is all style and no substance.

Length - A long business plan does not make a better business plan. All of the industry and marketing research won’t save a flawed plan. Too many plans have been immediately rejected because they are too long. Lenders and investors favor entrepreneurs who can efficiently demonstrate the ability to efficiently get to the point.

An executive summary should be no more than 1-3 pages. Ideally it should only be one page but some complex plans require more. An ideal business plan is 20-30 pages, including financials. Remember less is more!

Use operating plans, white papers and marketing plans for the in-depth details.

Fluffing - Using phrases like "unmatched in the industry;" "narrow window of opportunity;" or "ground floor" are empty phrases filled with hype. If anything, the cynical reviewer will be turned off by the hype and trash your plan. Stick with laying out the facts – what is the problem, how will you solve the problem, how big is the market, how will consumers buy it and what is your competitive advantage. If the opportunity is there the lender/investor will be able to make the decision for themselves.

Overvaluing the business idea - What gives a business value is not the idea but the execution of the idea. A great idea is a start, but almost everyone has had a great idea at some point in their lives. How you will execute this idea is what sets apart a real business from the dreamers.

4. Execution Mistakes

Waiting too long - Funding a business takes a long time. Expect three months at a minimum after finishing your business plan to get funding. Unless you have sufficient capital, other sources of income and can be funded in-house at a bank, this number may be reduced. Bank financing for business with less than two years of operating history are typically funded through an SBA guarantee, which requires additional time, patience and paperwork. Financing through investors is usually an even longer process as they have a lot of people competing for their money and they tend to do significant due diligence to secure their investment. Waiting until you need the money is a sure way to keep your business from launching.

Unreasonable time lines - Many business owners underestimate the timelines for completing milestones. Its human nature to think we can do things faster than is possible. When getting a business started there will be several tasks you could not have anticipated and the some tasks you think will be easy which will end up taking much longer. It is best to overestimate and finish early, rather than scramble and execute your opening poorly.

Failing to seek outside review - When preparing your plan, be sure that you have at least a few people review it before sending it out. Preferably look for people in your industry or who have a specialization in sales, distribution, etc that could lend a fresh set of eyes and find any flaws in the plan. Being so close to the action can keep you from being objective and this additional scrutiny may save you countless headaches and money down the road.

Perfecting - It can be easy to spend countless hours perfecting your plan and ultimately never launching. Remember, your plan will never be perfect and in practice should be continually updated as you learn more about the business, market and customers. Don’t make your plan an academic practice, finish it and get in front of investors and lenders. Use this feedback to see if your plan really needs the additional perfection.


The Business Plan Factory has helped entrepreneurs since 1999 with the development and review of business plans, creation of financial projections and business coaching. More information on The Business Plan Factory can be found at www.thebusinessplanfactory.com.

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Institutional Economic on Indonesian Decentralization

An Opinion by Jacky's Opinion

Work Bank in Quality of Growth was publishes on 2002 told many thing to underdevelopment countries; the rule and role to government for taking some action to intervention market failure. Institutional Economics is just an issue in Indonesia and also in debate forums, till implementation by Otonomi Daerah (decentralization) in 2002. Although Indonesia is late to bring it to the formal regulation, we believe years by years, Institutional Economics is being basic or standard for government. World Bank said that government must involve much to handle market failures, such as Education, Health, Poverty and the most important relate on our topic is Government efficiency.

In my pepper on chapter one describes some relevant theory, its development till now, and how the government supposes to do. Many problems about Inefficiency must be taken by smart regulation, as well as how the government tries to fight the corruption which becomes the main-root of all problems.

And the last topic will show us how the role of the game. Although the pepper didn’t downing to the earth, only issue and theory; many case can be explain by these theory. I would like to raise an example for sharpness our mind. Work Bank in many times always proclaims the issues. As we see, Institutional Economics try to complete the weakness of Neoclassical Thought.

To increase our government performs such fighting force the corruption, market failures in environment issue, health and poverty. Institutional Economics try to make their main tool like repairing relationship between principle–agent problem, transparency and check and balance. In Indonesia we see the principle–agent become main cause of inefficiency; legislative and executive, even the government and businessman and even more government–businessman–citizen.

To reduce these problem, all countries were agree that law became the main regulations suppose to be in the front to open all problems. Therefore, law can’t work if government and the Judicative can support it.

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Rich Dad and Poor Dad on Jacky’s Opinion

A few years ago, I read a book with title Rich Dad Poor Dad. The book is the best seller on the bookshop in the world. The book tells me about Robert (the writer) who has two fathers, rich dad and poor dad. Robert’s real father is the poor one and the other one is his friend’s father (rich dad). The book tells me a story about Robert who wants to be rich but Robert didn’t know how. One thing Robert knows; rich means have a lot of money. One day, Robert and his friend start to work (to be rich). They trying to collect toothpaste’s pack it makes from tin. After they collect to much toothpaste’s pack, they molten it and than they put the tin into a mould and result is false money. When Robert’s father saw the result of their work, he’s really shock and he never imagines that his only son can do stupid thing like this.

After that, he just laughing and giving Robert an advice that to be rich you have to work hard. Than he tells Robert to learn from his friend’s father (rich dad). In one moment, Robert asks his poor dad, “dad, why are you poor?” and his father answer the question “ I am poor because of you, son” than the other time Robert asks his rich dad with the same question and his rich dad give him the same answer with his poor dad. In the middle of the learning process, Robert start to understand that to be rich its unnecessary thing to fill our brain with knowledge, but using knowledge as a tools to read business situation.

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Plato Brilliant Idea

One of the most brilliant idea from Plato is communal society (Plato's Communism). Do you about Pecinan in United States or communal society of homogeneous by job? I have minimum knowledge from foreign, but in my country Indonesia, especially Jogjakarta, there are many village, small town fulfill with Plato's idea.

What was Plato Idea? In Economic perfective 'Division of Labor' of Plato is created to harmony. people should do what they like, kind like his talent, hobby ect. People with sewing talent can't be forced to cook, because he or she don't have talent on cooking. The Productivity raise because he or she are is enjoy. Plato's philosophy on this idea is written above show that in harmony village (state harmony, Plato's dreaming) there are no jealousy, gap between rich and the poor, because in his dream, state with homogeneous job, the society will life in peaceful, there is no gap.

Although Plato's Idea slowly death after Adam Smith's theory on same content, most people in my place Jogjakarta still use Plato's idea to get their life better. in capitalism world, Plato's idea is used with a little bit modification example, real estate with localization rich people in the same place. we can imagine if the rich and the poor people are living together, I believe, many conflict is raise because of it.
Thanks to the great Plato.

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